A regime is a set of protocols and norms that are both formal (such as laws or government institutions) and informal (such as the rules of political discourse or a particular economic system). These protocols define the way that people can interact, and they shape the outcomes of interactions.
Regime change occurs when a powerful country overtly or covertly interferes with another country’s leadership with the goal of replacing it. The term is most commonly associated with military interventions aimed at overthrowing foreign governments, but it can also be applied to other interventions that involve a threat of coercive force such as backing coups and support for political parties and candidates.
The US has a long history of regime change, and despite the numerous failures, advocates of this type of policy continue to tout it as a viable tool for advancing American interests. However, a close review of the scholarly literature suggests that regime change is far more complicated than its proponents have portrayed it. In fact, in 60+ attempts, the United States only succeeded in replacing the target nation’s leadership 39 percent of the time.
More importantly, most covert regime change missions end up fostering a host of unintended negative consequences. As a result, American officials should be more skeptical about the value of regime change and should use the tools of traditional statecraft when addressing odious foreign regimes. In particular, they should recognize that a foreign government’s priorities will likely remain unchanged by changing its leadership, and that this reality makes it unlikely that regime change policies will achieve their stated goals or objectives.
