Economic forecast is a broad concept that encompasses many methods for making predictions about future economic variables. The choice of a particular methodology can depend on what the forecaster is trying to predict. Prior to the work of Jan Tinbergen in the late 1930s, when the first macroeconometric models were created, economic forecasts almost always took the form of predictions about individual prices or a variety of other, generally microeconomic, variables. In contrast, the prediction of the performance of entire economies began to take center stage following the creation of these early models.
This shift is reflected in the name of the annual Survey of Professional Forecasters, which now covers global growth for both 2024 and 2025 and a number of indicators including unemployment, inflation, and gross domestic product (GDP). Forecasts are made at quarterly, annual, and sometimes even longer-term horizons.
As a result, the Survey’s methodologies range from those that are purely statistical in nature to those that attempt to represent economic behavior as a series of relationships between the variables. These relationships may be based on economic theory or they may be assumed, rather than estimated, as part of the model.
In the current global economy, growth is slowing amid a rise in trade barriers and elevated policy uncertainty. Other downside risks include tighter global financial conditions, surges in violence and social unrest, further declines in official aid, and more frequent natural disasters. Upside risks include a partial resolution of the trade war and the benefits from technological adoption.
